NEED TO KNOW

IR Post-ceasefire tensions rise after Hormuz attack: This week the US-Iran conflict remained in a fragile post-ceasefire phase following the June 17 memorandum of understanding (MoU). Negotiations advanced with technical talks in Switzerland, setting up working groups on sanctions, nuclear issues, oversight mechanisms, and on Lebanon. However, on Thursday, Iran’s IRGC attacked a Singapore-flagged cargo ship in the Strait of Hormuz, damaging the bridge but causing no injuries. The strike came shortly after Iran warned against using a new UN-backed shipping route, testing the recent deal and prompting the UN's International Maritime Organization (IMO) to suspend its vessel evacuation plans for over 11,000 seafarers on hundreds of vessels still stranded in the Persian Gulf. In response, the US launched new strikes on Iran and Iran retaliated by targeting US military facilities in Kuwait and Bahrain, calling the future of the ceasefire into question.

LEB Israel-Lebanon sign agreement, hostilities continue: A new US-mediated framework agreement between Israel and Lebanon was signed on Friday, as a first step towards a broader peace deal. Israeli PM Netanyahu described the agreement as a major win for Israel, as it will allow the Israeli military to remain in much of the territory it is already occupying in southern Lebanon, as long as Hezbollah is not disarmed. Hezbollah has rejected the trilateral agreement, calling it “humiliating, shameful and a surrender of sovereignty”. Protests against the deal broke out in the Lebanese capital, while a day after the agreement was signed, an Israeli drone hit the southern town of Nabatieh al-Fawqa, and further strikes were also reported in the area.

RU Russia-Ukraine conflict escalates again: Ukraine launched one of its heaviest drone attacks of the war, targeting 12 Russian regions, Russian-held Crimea and the surrounding seas. Russia’s Defense Ministry claimed its air defenses intercepted 660 Ukrainian drones, more than the previous record of 556 on May 17. In response, Russia conducted large-scale missile and drone strikes on Ukrainian cities, including Kiev, causing widespread damage. Civilian casualties have been reported by both sides.

VE Deadly earthquakes hit Venezuela: The country was struck by devastating back-to-back earthquakes measuring 7.2 and 7.5 magnitude on Wednesday, collapsing dozens of buildings and centering destruction heavily around the capital of Caracas and the coastal city of La Guaira. Interim President Delcy Rodríguez declared a nationwide state of emergency, as at least 1,430 deaths and 3,200 injuries have been reported so far, with casualties expected to climb sharply as rescue teams dig through rubble and almost 69,000 people are still unaccounted for. The powerful tremors, the country's strongest since 1900, caused extensive infrastructure damage, shutting down key transit systems and severely damaging Simón Bolívar International Airport, making it harder for international aid efforts to reach the affected areas.

US Tech selloff: Bloomberg dubbed this week's sharp tech stock decline a "chip wreck”, driven by fears that the AI spending boom may be slowing and that valuations had become overheated after a massive rally. The rout began in Asia early in the week, with South Korea's Kospi plunging over 10% as Samsung and SK Hynix each fell more than 12%, triggering a global spillover. In the US, the Nasdaq dropped around 2.2% on Tuesday amid heavy losses in chipmakers like Nvidia, Intel, AMD, and Micron, while Tesla shares also sold off sharply as did SpaceX (nearly 30% from its IPO peak), contributing to Elon Musk losing his trillionaire status. The selloff wiped out hundreds of billions in market value across tech giants and has heightened bubble fears in a sector that powered much of the 2026 bull market.

EU Europe faces record-shattering heatwave: An unprecedented heatwave has swept Western Europe, with France recording its hottest day ever on a national scale with 44.3°C on June 23, while the UK broke its hottest June day record with 36.4°C on June 25. In France, where more than a third of the country was under red heat alerts, authorities restricted public alcohol consumption and banned sales at events in red-alert zones to reduce pressure on emergency services. France recorded a fourfold surge in heat-related emergency room entries and over 1000 excess deaths, while the London Ambulance Service handled its highest number of life-threatening calls ever in a single day. Belgium cancelled its annual Waterloo battle re-enactment, and Austria saw sharp spikes in electricity prices due to surging air conditioning demand.

UK Starmer resigns: Keir Starmer resigned as UK Prime Minister and Labour leader, a move triggered by intense internal party pressure and devastating local election losses. Starmer will remain in office until a leadership contest concludes by September 2026, with former Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham currently positioned as the clear frontrunner to succeed him.

BO State of emergency : Bolivian President Rodrigo Paz has declared a 90-day nationwide state of emergency following nearly 50 days of paralyzing anti-government protests and road blockades, which Paz has called an organized attempt to destabilize the country. The unrest was initially triggered by government austerity measures, including the elimination of long-standing fuel subsidies to reduce a fiscal deficit, as well as controversial land reforms. The continuous blockades have led to severe shortages of food, medicine, and fuel across major urban centers. By invoking a state of emergency, the government has authorized the military to dismantle the blockades, clear transport routes, and restore public order. While the administration reached a tentative agreement with the country's main labor union to ease tensions, several factions and supporters of former President Evo Morales refuse to negotiate and continue demanding Paz's resignation.

GOOD TO KNOW

Crypto market in freefall

The broader cryptocurrency market suffered a brutal selloff this week, with the total value cut by more than half from its October 2025 peak of $4.28 trillion to $2 trillion on Thursday. Bitcoin, which accounts for roughly 58% of the global crypto market, plunged to a 21-month low around $58,000, before paring losses, while major altcoins including Ethereum (down ~9%), Solana (~6.5%), and meme coins like Dogecoin (~12%) were hit even harder.

The decline wiped out much of the so-called “Trump pump” wave of optimism that had driven Bitcoin above $126,000 last fall, fueled by hopes for crypto-friendly legislation. Analysts attribute the sell-off to a combination of institutional selling (including outflows by BlackRock), capital flight as "hot money" rotates out of crypto into high-flying AI companies, and a hawkish stance by the Federal Reserve under new Chairman Kevin Warsh that has markets pricing in an 85% chance of a September rate hike. Coinbase co-founder and CEO Brian Armstrong, however, struck a more positive tone, expecting a rebound, particularly in Bitcoin: “I think we bottomed at $60K or so. A lot of things could drive growth of bitcoin here. I think market structure, legislation passing, I think some of these AI companies going public, because they've been soaking up a lot of the risk capital. So once these companies get public and the unlocks happen, I think you'll start to see capital move back around”.

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US Anthropic accuses Alibaba of illicitly extracting Claude capabilities: Anthropic claimed that between April 22 and June 5, operators affiliated with Alibaba and its Qwen AI lab used nearly 25,000 fraudulent accounts to generate over 28.8 million exchanges with Claude. According to the company, this “distillation” effort, i.e. training weaker models on the outputs of a stronger one, was used to accelerate China’s ability to reach advanced capabilities like those of Mythos Preview. This follows earlier reports of similar campaigns by Chinese firms like DeepSeek, Moonshot, and MiniMax, amid escalating US-China tensions over AI technology.

RS Vučić announces resignation: Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić announced on Saturday that he will resign within weeks, roughly one year before his final mandate officially expires in mid-2027. His decision follows 18 months of intensive, student-led anti-corruption protests triggered by the fatal November 2024 railway station awning collapse in Novi Sad. Vučić, who has been in power as ‌president or prime minister for over 12 years, stated he will trigger snap presidential and parliamentary elections, though political analysts expect him to seek the office of prime minister.

TH Thailand cracks down on Buy Now, Pay Later: The Bank of Thailand is preparing to enforce a strict regulatory framework on BNPL services by the end of 2026. Central Bank Governor Vitai Ratanakorn highlighted a dangerous trend of young, low-income consumers using digital credit lines to finance cheap, everyday consumables, such as a 106-baht ($4) bubble tea or a 50-baht meal over several months. Thai BNPL accounts skyrocketed nearly tenfold from 620,000 in 2021 to over 6 million, heavily impacting young adults aged 20-35, who already hold a staggering 27% non-performing loan ratio in a country where household debt sits at 87% of GDP.

US Iran-Egypt World Cup “Pride Match”: The Group G World Cup fixture between Egypt and Iran proceeded as scheduled on Friday, despite formal protests from both nations regarding the game's designation as Seattle's "Pride Match." The local organizing committee had selected this specific date for the celebration to align with the city's annual Pride weekend long before the December tournament draw paired the two Middle Eastern countries, where homosexuality remains criminalized. The Egyptian and Iranian football federations petitioned FIFA to block all LGBTQ-themed activities and symbols, arguing they severely clashed with their cultural and religious values. However, FIFA rejected the requests to intervene, explicitly confirming that rainbow flags are protected under the stadium code of conduct as broader expressions of human rights.

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